The spread (Arkansas Razorbacks side) has barely moved — it opened at +17.5 and sits at +17.5 now. No signal either way.
The total has barely moved — it opened at 52.5 and sits at 52.5 now. No signal either way.
We don't know *why* the market moved — injury news, sharp money, or weather are all invisible to us and to every public bettor. What we do know is the pattern: across five seasons, totals that moved 3+ points covered the direction of the move 61.4% of the time when taken at the opening number (798 games, CI 58–64.7). The market correcting an opener is information in itself — that's the whole strategy.
Every number left behind is at books we don't use (draftkings) — so for us this is a tracked move, not a bet.
| Book | Line | Price | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| fanduel ★ | +16.5 | -110 | Sat 5:10 PM |
| coolbet | +16.5 | -110 | Wed 6:52 PM |
| draftkings ★ | +17.5 | -110 | Wed 6:52 PM |
| Book | Line | Price | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| draftkings ★ | +52.5 | -108 | Wed 6:52 PM |
| fanduel ★ | +55.5 | -110 | Sat 5:10 PM |
| coolbet | +55.5 | -109 | Sat 5:10 PM |