The edge is line movement, not predictions. Every college football line opens as a rough draft. All week, sharp money corrects it. Across 11 seasons of history, when a line moved 3+ points, the side it moved toward covered ~62% of the time measured at the opening number — on spreads and totals alike.
We hunt books that fall behind. Our engine captures every book's lines around the clock. When the market moves and DraftKings or FanDuel hasn't caught up yet, that stale number is the bet — you're buying at yesterday's price after the market told you today's.
● BET = 3+ point move with a stale DK/FD number still for sale. ◐ LEAN = smaller move (2–3 pts), thinner edge, small stakes or skip. A pick is only valid at the listed book and line — if it's gone, the bet is gone.
We grade ourselves honestly. Every pick is logged before kickoff and graded against the closing line we captured ourselves. The metric that matters is CLV — closing line value. Beating the close consistently is the only reliable early evidence of real edge; win rate alone is noise at small samples.
House rules: flat, fun-sized stakes. No chasing moved lines. Expect losing days — the edge is ~62%, not a lock. For entertainment only.
1. Issued. The moment the engine sees a qualifying move with a live DraftKings/FanDuel number, the pick is born: logged at that exact line, pushed as an alert. That snapshot is permanent.
2. Live. The pick is bettable until the book reprices — sometimes hours, sometimes all day. Take it at the listed line or better; if the app shows something worse, pass.
3. Expired. The book caught up. The pick leaves the bet board (shown briefly as "expired") but stays in the record at its issued line. If you took it while live, this is you — and you already beat the closing line.
4. Graded. After the game: win/loss and CLV, automatically, no exceptions, no deletions. The record is "every pick at the line it was issued with" — so if you bet every alert promptly, the site's record IS your record.
Alert-driven (catches everything): subscribe to the push alerts, and when one fires, open the app and take the number if it's still there. Picks are born whenever a book falls behind — most often Sunday–Tuesday, again when news breaks late in the week.
Batch bettor (simpler, catches most): check the board once a day — Monday and Tuesday evenings are the richest — and take whatever ● BETs are live at that moment. You'll miss the fastest-closing numbers; that's the trade for convenience. Your personal record is then a subset of the site's, which is fine.
Either way: ● BETs only unless you like thin edges (◐ LEANs are tracked separately and labeled honestly). One flat unit each. The line in your app is the truth — never chase a number that's gone.