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UTSA Roadrunners @ Texas State Bobcats
Sat, 9/12, 3:30 PM ET · dashed line = opening number · ★ = our books (DK/FD)
Analysis

The spread (Texas State Bobcats side) opened at +1 and the market has since moved it to -1.5 — a 2.5-point move toward Texas State Bobcats. The biggest single jump we captured came Monday 11:58 AM (+1 → -1.5). The number is still moving — last change Monday 11:58 AM.

The total has barely moved — it opened at 64.5 and sits at 64.5 now. No signal either way.

We don't know *why* the market moved — injury news, sharp money, or weather are all invisible to us and to every public bettor. What we do know is the pattern: across five seasons, spreads that moved 2–3 points covered the direction of the move 56.3% of the time when taken at the opening number (640 games, CI 52.4–60). The market correcting an opener is information in itself — that's the whole strategy.

Every number left behind is at books we don't use (betanysports) — so for us this is a tracked move, not a bet.

Spread (Texas State Bobcats) ○ PASS open +1 (home) -> now -1.5 | move -2.5 toward Texas State Bobcats
→ take Texas State Bobcats · this move-size bucket historically 56.3% (CI 52.4–60, n=640)
open +1 -1.5 Sun, 9/6 latest Spread (Texas State Bobcats) — pinnacle line over time
BookLinePriceAs of
draftkings ★ -1.5 -108 Mon 11:58 AM
fanduel ★ -1.5 -110 Mon 11:58 AM
lowvig -1.5 -106 Mon 11:58 AM
betonlineag -1.5 -110 Mon 11:58 AM
gtbets -1.5 -109 Mon 11:58 AM
betmgm -1.5 -110 Mon 11:58 AM
leovegas_se -1.5 -112 Mon 1:13 PM
betrivers -1.5 -110 Mon 1:13 PM
unibet_se -1.5 -110 Mon 1:13 PM
unibet_nl -1.5 -110 Mon 1:13 PM
williamhill_us -1.5 -110 Mon 11:58 AM
fanatics -1.5 -110 Mon 1:13 PM
pinnacle -1.5 -108 Mon 11:58 AM
betus -1.5 -110 Mon 11:58 AM
mybookieag -1.5 -110 Mon 11:58 AM
bovada -1.5 -110 Mon 11:58 AM
everygame -1.5 -110 Mon 11:58 AM
betanysports +1 -110 Sun 7:59 PM
Total (over) no meaningful move off the opener yet
open +64.5 +64.5 Sun, 9/6 latest Total (over) — pinnacle line over time
BookLinePriceAs of
fanduel ★ +64.5 -110 Sun 4:49 AM
draftkings ★ +64.5 -108 Sun 6:09 PM
gtbets +64.5 -109 Sun 2:23 PM
betmgm +64.5 -110 Mon 1:13 PM
betrivers +64.5 -112 Mon 1:13 PM
unibet_nl +64.5 -112 Mon 1:13 PM
williamhill_us +64.5 -110 Sun 2:23 PM
lowvig +64.5 -108 Mon 1:13 PM
betonlineag +64.5 -110 Mon 1:13 PM
fanatics +64.5 -110 Sun 6:09 PM
pinnacle +64.5 -110 Mon 11:58 AM
betus +64.5 -110 Sun 6:09 PM
mybookieag +64.5 -110 Sun 6:09 PM
bovada +64.5 -110 Sun 6:09 PM
betanysports +64.5 -110 Sun 7:59 PM
How to read this: the chart shows the sharp line drifting away from the dashed opener — that drift is the edge (3+ point movers cover ~62% historically). The book table shows who has repriced and who is still selling an old number. A bet only exists at a ★ book whose line is meaningfully behind the market.