Anthropick

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Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles @ Auburn Tigers
Sat, 9/12, 7:45 PM ET · dashed line = opening number · ★ = our books (DK/FD)
Analysis

The spread (Auburn Tigers side) opened at -30 and the market has since moved it to -32.5 — a 2.5-point move toward Auburn Tigers. The biggest single jump we captured came Monday 11:58 AM (-30.5 → -32.5). The number is still moving — last change Monday 11:58 AM.

The total has barely moved — it opened at 53 and sits at 53 now. No signal either way.

We don't know *why* the market moved — injury news, sharp money, or weather are all invisible to us and to every public bettor. What we do know is the pattern: across five seasons, spreads that moved 2–3 points covered the direction of the move 56.3% of the time when taken at the opening number (640 games, CI 52.4–60). The market correcting an opener is information in itself — that's the whole strategy.

Right now the bet exists because fanduel -31.5 (-110) has not caught up to the market — you'd be getting part of the move for free. That gap usually closes within hours, so the number in the app is the truth: if it's gone, the bet is gone.

Spread (Auburn Tigers) ◐ LEAN open -30 (home) -> now -32.5 | move -2.5 toward Auburn Tigers
→ take Auburn Tigers · this move-size bucket historically 56.3% (CI 52.4–60, n=640)
open -30 -32.5 Sun, 9/6 latest Spread (Auburn Tigers) — pinnacle line over time
BookLinePriceAs of
draftkings ★ -33.5 -108 Mon 11:58 AM
mybookieag -33.5 -110 Mon 11:58 AM
fanatics -33 -110 Mon 1:13 PM
lowvig -32.5 -111 Mon 11:58 AM
betonlineag -32.5 -115 Mon 11:58 AM
betmgm -32.5 -108 Mon 11:58 AM
gtbets -32.5 -109 Mon 11:58 AM
coolbet -32.5 -110 Mon 11:58 AM
betus -32.5 -110 Mon 1:13 PM
unibet_se -32.5 -110 Mon 11:58 AM
unibet_nl -32.5 -110 Mon 11:58 AM
leovegas_se -32.5 -112 Mon 11:58 AM
betrivers -32.5 -110 Mon 11:58 AM
pinnacle -32.5 -109 Mon 11:58 AM
bovada -32.5 -110 Mon 11:58 AM
williamhill_us -32.5 -112 Mon 11:58 AM
everygame -32.5 -110 Mon 11:58 AM
fanduel ★ -31.5 -110 Mon 11:58 AM
onexbet -29.5 -110 Mon 12:50 AM
betanysports -29.5 -110 Sun 7:59 PM
Total (over) no meaningful move off the opener yet
open +53 +53 Sun, 9/6 latest Total (over) — pinnacle line over time
BookLinePriceAs of
onexbet +52.5 -110 Mon 12:50 AM
betanysports +52.5 -110 Mon 12:50 AM
pinnacle +53 -118 Mon 11:58 AM
draftkings ★ +53.5 -110 Mon 11:58 AM
betmgm +53.5 -110 Mon 11:58 AM
lowvig +53.5 -110 Mon 11:58 AM
betonlineag +53.5 -112 Mon 11:58 AM
williamhill_us +53.5 -112 Mon 11:58 AM
gtbets +53.5 -109 Mon 11:58 AM
coolbet +53.5 -110 Mon 11:58 AM
betus +53.5 -110 Mon 11:58 AM
mybookieag +53.5 -110 Mon 11:58 AM
bovada +53.5 -110 Mon 11:58 AM
fanatics +53.5 -110 Mon 11:58 AM
unibet_nl +54 -112 Mon 11:58 AM
betrivers +54 -112 Mon 11:58 AM
fanduel ★ +54.5 -106 Mon 11:58 AM
How to read this: the chart shows the sharp line drifting away from the dashed opener — that drift is the edge (3+ point movers cover ~62% historically). The book table shows who has repriced and who is still selling an old number. A bet only exists at a ★ book whose line is meaningfully behind the market.