Anthropick

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San Diego State Aztecs @ UCLA Bruins
Sat, 9/12, 7:15 PM ET · dashed line = opening number · ★ = our books (DK/FD)
Analysis

The spread (UCLA Bruins side) has barely moved — it opened at -11.5 and sits at -11.5 now. No signal either way.

The total opened at 53 and the market has since moved it to 55 — a 2.0-point move upward (toward the over). The biggest single jump we captured came Tuesday 11:30 AM (53 → 55). The number is still moving — last change Tuesday 11:30 AM.

We don't know *why* the market moved — injury news, sharp money, or weather are all invisible to us and to every public bettor. What we do know is the pattern: across five seasons, totals that moved 2–3 points covered the direction of the move 56.1% of the time when taken at the opening number (1325 games, CI 53.4–58.7). The market correcting an opener is information in itself — that's the whole strategy.

Every number left behind is at books we don't use (onexbet) — so for us this is a tracked move, not a bet.

Forecast at kickoff: wind 9 mph (gusts 5), 84°F, 0% precip. Nothing here that historically moves totals.

Spread (UCLA Bruins) no meaningful move off the opener yet
open -11.5 -11.5 Sun, 9/6 latest Spread (UCLA Bruins) — pinnacle line over time
BookLinePriceAs of
fanduel ★ -12.5 -110 Mon 2:07 PM
coolbet -12 -110 Tue 11:59 AM
betrivers -12 -110 Tue 11:30 AM
unibet_se -12 -110 Tue 11:30 AM
leovegas_se -12 -112 Tue 11:30 AM
unibet_nl -12 -110 Tue 11:30 AM
betmgm -12 -110 Tue 10:00 AM
mybookieag -12 -110 Tue 10:00 AM
bovada -12 -110 Tue 12:30 PM
fanatics -12 -110 Tue 12:30 PM
everygame -12 -110 Mon 3:58 PM
draftkings ★ -11.5 -112 Sun 7:59 PM
betonlineag -11.5 -115 Mon 2:07 PM
lowvig -11.5 -111 Mon 2:07 PM
gtbets -11.5 -109 Sun 6:09 PM
betus -11.5 -115 Mon 2:07 PM
onexbet -11.5 -105 Mon 12:50 AM
pinnacle -11.5 -113 Tue 11:30 AM
williamhill_us -11.5 -113 Tue 11:30 AM
betanysports -11.5 -110 Tue 5:00 AM
Total (over) ○ PASS open 53 -> now 55 | move 2.0
→ take OVER · this move-size bucket historically 56.1% (CI 53.4–58.7, n=1325)
open +53 +55 Sun, 9/6 latest Total (over) — pinnacle line over time
BookLinePriceAs of
onexbet +53.5 -110 Mon 12:50 AM
draftkings ★ +54.5 -120 Tue 11:59 AM
betrivers +54.5 -112 Tue 11:30 AM
unibet_nl +54.5 -112 Tue 11:30 AM
mybookieag +54.5 -110 Tue 11:59 AM
coolbet +55 -109 Tue 11:30 AM
gtbets +55 -109 Tue 11:30 AM
betonlineag +55 -110 Tue 11:30 AM
lowvig +55 -108 Tue 11:30 AM
betus +55 -110 Tue 11:30 AM
pinnacle +55 -108 Tue 11:30 AM
bovada +55 -110 Tue 11:30 AM
fanatics +55 -112 Tue 11:59 AM
fanduel ★ +55.5 -106 Tue 11:59 AM
williamhill_us +55.5 -104 Tue 11:59 AM
betmgm +55.5 -102 Tue 11:59 AM
betanysports +55.5 -110 Tue 11:30 AM
How to read this: the chart shows the sharp line drifting away from the dashed opener — that drift is the edge (3+ point movers cover ~62% historically). The book table shows who has repriced and who is still selling an old number. A bet only exists at a ★ book whose line is meaningfully behind the market.