Anthropick

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Utah State Aggies @ Washington Huskies
Sat, 9/12, 3:30 PM ET · dashed line = opening number · ★ = our books (DK/FD)
Analysis

The spread (Washington Huskies side) opened at -24.5 and the market has since moved it to -26.5 — a 2.0-point move toward Washington Huskies. The biggest single jump we captured came Sunday 2:23 PM (-24.5 → -27.5). It last moved Monday 12:50 AM and has held since, which reads as the market settling on this price.

The total opened at 56.5 and the market has since moved it to 55.5 — a 1.0-point move downward (toward the under). The biggest single jump we captured came Monday 12:50 AM (56.5 → 55.5). It last moved Monday 12:50 AM and has held since, which reads as the market settling on this price.

We don't know *why* the market moved — injury news, sharp money, or weather are all invisible to us and to every public bettor. What we do know is the pattern: across five seasons, spreads that moved 2–3 points covered the direction of the move 56.3% of the time when taken at the opening number (640 games, CI 52.4–60). The market correcting an opener is information in itself — that's the whole strategy.

Right now the bet exists because fanduel -25.5 (-118) has not caught up to the market — you'd be getting part of the move for free. That gap usually closes within hours, so the number in the app is the truth: if it's gone, the bet is gone.

Forecast at kickoff: wind 3 mph (gusts 4), 59°F, 27% precip. Nothing here that historically moves totals.

Spread (Washington Huskies) ◐ LEAN open -24.5 (home) -> now -26.5 | move -2.0 toward Washington Huskies
→ take Washington Huskies · this move-size bucket historically 56.3% (CI 52.4–60, n=640)
open -24.5 -26.5 Fri, 9/4 latest Spread (Washington Huskies) — draftkings line over time
BookLinePriceAs of
coolbet -27 -110 Mon 11:58 AM
draftkings ★ -26.5 -115 Mon 12:50 AM
betonlineag -26.5 -110 Mon 12:50 AM
lowvig -26.5 -106 Mon 12:50 AM
gtbets -26.5 -109 Mon 12:50 AM
fanatics -26.5 -110 Mon 12:50 AM
onexbet -26.5 -110 Sun 6:09 PM
williamhill_us -26.5 -110 Mon 12:50 AM
betmgm -26.5 -110 Mon 11:58 AM
betus -26.5 -110 Mon 11:58 AM
everygame -26.5 -110 Mon 11:58 AM
betrivers -26 -113 Mon 12:50 AM
unibet_se -26 -113 Mon 12:50 AM
unibet_nl -26 -113 Mon 12:50 AM
leovegas_se -26 -113 Mon 12:50 AM
fanduel ★ -25.5 -118 Mon 11:58 AM
Total (over) ○ PASS open 56.5 -> now 55.5 | move -1.0
→ take UNDER
open +56.5 +55.5 Fri, 9/4 latest Total (over) — draftkings line over time
BookLinePriceAs of
fanduel ★ +55.5 -110 Mon 12:50 AM
draftkings ★ +55.5 -112 Mon 12:50 AM
williamhill_us +55.5 -114 Mon 12:50 AM
gtbets +55.5 -109 Mon 8:43 AM
fanatics +55.5 -110 Mon 12:50 AM
onexbet +55.5 -110 Mon 8:43 AM
betmgm +55.5 -115 Mon 12:50 AM
betrivers +55.5 -114 Mon 12:50 AM
unibet_nl +55.5 -114 Mon 12:50 AM
coolbet +56 -110 Mon 11:58 AM
betonlineag +56 -105 Mon 12:50 AM
lowvig +56 -103 Mon 12:50 AM
betus +56 -105 Mon 11:58 AM
How to read this: the chart shows the sharp line drifting away from the dashed opener — that drift is the edge (3+ point movers cover ~62% historically). The book table shows who has repriced and who is still selling an old number. A bet only exists at a ★ book whose line is meaningfully behind the market.