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Texas Tech Red Raiders @ Colorado Buffaloes
Sat, 10/3, 7:31 PM ET · dashed line = opening number · ★ = our books (DK/FD)
Analysis

The spread (Colorado Buffaloes side) opened at +13.5 and the market has since moved it to +13 — a 0.5-point move toward Colorado Buffaloes. The biggest single jump we captured came Thursday 10:57 AM (+11 → +12.5). It last moved Thursday 12:57 PM and has held since, which reads as the market settling on this price.

The total has barely moved — it opened at 50 and sits at 50 now. No signal either way.

We don't know *why* the market moved — injury news, sharp money, or weather are all invisible to us and to every public bettor. What we do know is the pattern: across five seasons, spreads that moved 2–3 points covered the direction of the move ~56% of the time when taken at the opening number (historical bucket). The market correcting an opener is information in itself — that's the whole strategy.

Every number left behind is at books we don't use (betsson, nordicbet) — so for us this is a tracked move, not a bet.

Our logged picks on this game
spread home +12.5 @ draftkings — pending
Spread (Colorado Buffaloes) ○ PASS open +13.5 (home) -> now +13 | move -0.5 toward Colorado Buffaloes
→ take Colorado Buffaloes
open +13.5 +13 Mon, 9/28 latest Spread (Colorado Buffaloes) — pinnacle line over time
BookLinePriceAs of
fanduel ★ +12.5 -110 Thu 11:27 AM
coolbet +12.5 -110 Thu 4:27 PM
betrivers +12.5 -113 Wed 12:26 PM
leovegas_se +12.5 -114 Wed 12:26 PM
unibet_nl +12.5 -113 Wed 12:26 PM
unibet_se +12.5 -113 Wed 12:26 PM
onexbet +12.5 -110 Thu 5:27 AM
draftkings ★ +12.5 -108 Thu 12:57 PM
bovada +12.5 -105 Thu 11:27 AM
betonlineag +13 -110 Thu 4:27 PM
fanatics +13 -110 Thu 4:27 PM
lowvig +13 -106 Thu 4:27 PM
williamhill_us +13 -109 Thu 4:27 PM
mybookieag +13 -110 Thu 4:27 PM
betmgm +13 -110 Thu 4:27 PM
betus +13 -110 Thu 4:27 PM
betanysports +13 -110 Thu 4:27 PM
pinnacle +13 -111 Thu 12:57 PM
everygame +13 -110 Thu 4:27 PM
matchbook +13 -108 Thu 4:57 PM
betsson +14.5 -111 Sun 9:55 AM
nordicbet +14.5 -112 Sun 9:55 AM
Total (over) no meaningful move off the opener yet
open +50 +50 Mon, 9/28 latest Total (over) — pinnacle line over time
BookLinePriceAs of
pinnacle +50 -114 Thu 10:57 AM
fanduel ★ +50.5 -105 Wed 5:26 PM
coolbet +50.5 -109 Thu 4:27 PM
betrivers +50.5 -109 Wed 12:26 PM
unibet_nl +50.5 -109 Wed 12:26 PM
onexbet +50.5 -110 Thu 5:27 AM
betonlineag +50.5 -110 Mon 2:25 PM
draftkings ★ +50.5 -110 Sun 4:55 PM
fanatics +50.5 -110 Thu 10:57 AM
lowvig +50.5 -108 Mon 2:25 PM
williamhill_us +50.5 -107 Sun 4:55 PM
mybookieag +50.5 -110 Sun 5:25 PM
betmgm +50.5 -108 Thu 8:57 AM
betus +50.5 -110 Mon 2:25 PM
betanysports +50.5 -110 Sun 6:55 PM
bovada +50.5 -110 Thu 10:57 AM
matchbook +50.5 -108 Thu 4:27 PM
everygame +50.5 -110 Thu 10:27 AM
betsson +52 -112 Sun 9:55 AM
nordicbet +52 -114 Sun 9:55 AM
How to read this: the chart shows the sharp line drifting away from the dashed opener — that drift is the edge (3+ point movers cover ~62% historically). The book table shows who has repriced and who is still selling an old number. A bet only exists at a ★ book whose line is meaningfully behind the market.