Anthropick

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Rice Owls @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Sat, 9/12, 3:30 PM ET · dashed line = opening number · ★ = our books (DK/FD)
Analysis

The spread (Notre Dame Fighting Irish side) has barely moved — it opened at -44.5 and sits at -44.5 now. No signal either way.

The total opened at 52.5 and the market has since moved it to 54.5 — a 2.0-point move upward (toward the over). The biggest single jump we captured came Sunday 6:09 PM (52.5 → 53.5). The number is still moving — last change Monday 11:58 AM.

We don't know *why* the market moved — injury news, sharp money, or weather are all invisible to us and to every public bettor. What we do know is the pattern: across five seasons, totals that moved 2–3 points covered the direction of the move 56.1% of the time when taken at the opening number (1325 games, CI 53.4–58.7). The market correcting an opener is information in itself — that's the whole strategy.

Every book has fully repriced, so there's nothing left to buy — this page exists to track how the move resolves, not to recommend a bet.

Forecast at kickoff: wind 7 mph (gusts 9), 84°F, 10% precip. Nothing here that historically moves totals.

Spread (Notre Dame Fighting Irish) no meaningful move off the opener yet
open -44.5 -44.5 Sat, 9/5 latest Spread (Notre Dame Fighting Irish) — draftkings line over time
BookLinePriceAs of
draftkings ★ -44.5 -112 Sun 6:09 PM
lowvig -44.5 -106 Sun 2:23 PM
betonlineag -44.5 -110 Sun 2:23 PM
williamhill_us -44.5 -109 Sun 2:23 PM
gtbets -44.5 -109 Sun 6:09 PM
onexbet -44.5 -110 Mon 8:43 AM
unibet_se -44.5 -114 Mon 11:58 AM
leovegas_se -44.5 -115 Mon 11:58 AM
betrivers -44.5 -114 Mon 11:58 AM
unibet_nl -44.5 -114 Mon 11:58 AM
betmgm -44.5 -110 Mon 8:43 AM
betus -44.5 -110 Mon 11:58 AM
everygame -44.5 -110 Mon 11:58 AM
fanatics -44 -110 Mon 11:58 AM
coolbet -44 -110 Mon 11:58 AM
fanduel ★ -42.5 -110 Mon 12:50 AM
Total (over) ○ PASS open 52.5 -> now 54.5 | move 2.0
→ take OVER · this move-size bucket historically 56.1% (CI 53.4–58.7, n=1325)
open +52.5 +54.5 Sat, 9/5 latest Total (over) — draftkings line over time
BookLinePriceAs of
draftkings ★ +54.5 -115 Mon 11:58 AM
lowvig +54.5 -114 Mon 11:58 AM
betonlineag +54.5 -115 Mon 11:58 AM
williamhill_us +54.5 -113 Mon 11:58 AM
gtbets +54.5 -109 Mon 12:50 AM
fanatics +54.5 -115 Mon 11:58 AM
coolbet +54.5 -112 Mon 12:50 AM
fanduel ★ +54.5 -110 Mon 12:50 AM
onexbet +54.5 -110 Mon 8:43 AM
betrivers +54.5 -109 Mon 11:58 AM
unibet_nl +54.5 -109 Mon 11:58 AM
betmgm +54.5 -112 Mon 8:43 AM
betus +54.5 -115 Mon 11:58 AM
How to read this: the chart shows the sharp line drifting away from the dashed opener — that drift is the edge (3+ point movers cover ~62% historically). The book table shows who has repriced and who is still selling an old number. A bet only exists at a ★ book whose line is meaningfully behind the market.