Anthropick

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Washington State Cougars @ Kansas State Wildcats
Sat, 9/12, 12:00 PM ET · dashed line = opening number · ★ = our books (DK/FD)
Analysis

The spread (Kansas State Wildcats side) opened at -16.5 and the market has since moved it to -17.5 — a 1.0-point move toward Kansas State Wildcats. The biggest single jump we captured came Sunday 2:23 PM (-16.5 → -19.5). The number is still moving — last change Monday 11:58 AM.

The total opened at 51.5 and the market has since moved it to 49.5 — a 2.0-point move downward (toward the under). The biggest single jump we captured came Monday 8:43 AM (51.5 → 50.5). The number is still moving — last change Monday 11:58 AM.

We don't know *why* the market moved — injury news, sharp money, or weather are all invisible to us and to every public bettor. What we do know is the pattern: across five seasons, totals that moved 2–3 points covered the direction of the move 56.1% of the time when taken at the opening number (1325 games, CI 53.4–58.7). The market correcting an opener is information in itself — that's the whole strategy.

Right now the bet exists because fanduel 50.5 (-110) has not caught up to the market — you'd be getting part of the move for free. That gap usually closes within hours, so the number in the app is the truth: if it's gone, the bet is gone.

Forecast at kickoff: wind 7 mph (gusts 6), 81°F, 16% precip. Nothing here that historically moves totals.

Spread (Kansas State Wildcats) ○ PASS open -16.5 (home) -> now -17.5 | move -1.0 toward Kansas State Wildcats
→ take Kansas State Wildcats
open -16.5 -17.5 Sat, 9/5 latest Spread (Kansas State Wildcats) — draftkings line over time
BookLinePriceAs of
betsson -18.5 -102 Mon 1:13 PM
nordicbet -18.5 -102 Mon 1:13 PM
onexbet -18.5 -105 Mon 11:58 AM
unibet_se -18 -113 Mon 11:58 AM
leovegas_se -18 -114 Mon 11:58 AM
unibet_nl -18 -113 Mon 11:58 AM
betrivers -18 -113 Mon 11:58 AM
fanduel ★ -17.5 -115 Mon 11:58 AM
coolbet -17.5 -109 Mon 1:13 PM
mybookieag -17.5 -110 Mon 1:13 PM
draftkings ★ -17.5 -112 Mon 11:58 AM
betonlineag -17.5 -110 Mon 12:50 AM
lowvig -17.5 -106 Mon 12:50 AM
gtbets -17.5 -109 Mon 12:50 AM
williamhill_us -17.5 -110 Mon 12:50 AM
fanatics -17.5 -115 Mon 1:13 PM
betmgm -17.5 -110 Mon 11:58 AM
betus -17.5 -110 Mon 11:58 AM
everygame -17.5 -110 Mon 11:58 AM
Total (over) ◐ LEAN open 51.5 -> now 49.5 | move -2.0
→ take UNDER · this move-size bucket historically 56.1% (CI 53.4–58.7, n=1325)
open +51.5 +49.5 Sat, 9/5 latest Total (over) — draftkings line over time
BookLinePriceAs of
coolbet +49.5 -112 Mon 11:58 AM
draftkings ★ +49.5 -115 Mon 11:58 AM
betsson +49.5 -115 Mon 11:58 AM
nordicbet +49.5 -115 Mon 11:58 AM
onexbet +49.5 -110 Mon 11:58 AM
gtbets +49.5 -109 Mon 11:58 AM
williamhill_us +49.5 -114 Mon 11:58 AM
betonlineag +49.5 -105 Mon 11:58 AM
lowvig +49.5 -103 Mon 11:58 AM
fanatics +49.5 -110 Mon 1:13 PM
betmgm +49.5 -110 Mon 11:58 AM
mybookieag +49.5 -110 Mon 1:13 PM
betus +49.5 -105 Mon 11:58 AM
unibet_nl +50 -109 Mon 11:58 AM
betrivers +50 -109 Mon 11:58 AM
fanduel ★ +50.5 -110 Mon 8:43 AM
How to read this: the chart shows the sharp line drifting away from the dashed opener — that drift is the edge (3+ point movers cover ~62% historically). The book table shows who has repriced and who is still selling an old number. A bet only exists at a ★ book whose line is meaningfully behind the market.