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North Texas Mean Green @ Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Thu, 10/1, 9:00 PM ET · dashed line = opening number · ★ = our books (DK/FD)
Analysis

The spread (Tulsa Golden Hurricane side) opened at -2 and the market has since moved it to +2.5 — a 4.5-point move toward North Texas Mean Green. The biggest single jump we captured came Wednesday 4:56 PM (-1 → +1). The number is still moving — last change Thursday 5:27 PM.

The total opened at 58 and the market has since moved it to 56.5 — a 1.5-point move downward (toward the under). The biggest single jump we captured came Thursday 11:57 AM (57.5 → 56.5). It last moved Thursday 2:57 PM and has held since, which reads as the market settling on this price.

We don't know *why* the market moved — injury news, sharp money, or weather are all invisible to us and to every public bettor. What we do know is the pattern: across five seasons, spreads that moved 3+ points covered the direction of the move 61.9% of the time when taken at the opening number (591 games, CI 57.9–65.8). The market correcting an opener is information in itself — that's the whole strategy.

Every book has fully repriced, so there's nothing left to buy — this page exists to track how the move resolves, not to recommend a bet.

Forecast at kickoff: wind 3 mph (gusts 9), 72°F, 28% precip. Nothing here that historically moves totals.

Our logged picks on this game
spread away +1.5 @ draftkings — pending
Spread (Tulsa Golden Hurricane) ○ PASS open -2 (home) -> now +2.5 | move 4.5 toward North Texas Mean Green
→ take North Texas Mean Green · this move-size bucket historically 61.9% (CI 57.9–65.8, n=591)
open -2 +2.5 Sun, 9/27 latest Spread (Tulsa Golden Hurricane) — pinnacle line over time
BookLinePriceAs of
betsson +2.5 -109 Thu 5:57 PM
coolbet +2.5 -109 Thu 5:27 PM
fanduel ★ +2.5 -105 Thu 4:57 PM
nordicbet +2.5 -110 Thu 5:57 PM
betrivers +2.5 -113 Thu 5:27 PM
leovegas_se +2.5 -114 Thu 5:27 PM
unibet_nl +2.5 -113 Thu 5:27 PM
unibet_se +2.5 -113 Thu 5:27 PM
onexbet +2.5 -110 Thu 5:57 PM
betonlineag +2.5 100 Thu 4:57 PM
draftkings ★ +2.5 -102 Thu 4:57 PM
gtbets +2.5 -104 Thu 4:27 PM
lowvig +2.5 104 Thu 4:57 PM
williamhill_us +2.5 -106 Thu 4:57 PM
betmgm +2.5 -102 Thu 5:27 PM
mybookieag +2.5 -110 Thu 2:27 PM
betus +2.5 100 Thu 4:57 PM
betanysports +2.5 -105 Thu 5:27 PM
bovada +2.5 -105 Thu 2:27 PM
pinnacle +2.5 100 Thu 5:27 PM
everygame +2.5 -105 Thu 5:27 PM
fanatics +3 -115 Thu 5:57 PM
matchbook +3 -109 Thu 5:57 PM
Total (over) ○ PASS open 58 -> now 56.5 | move -1.5
→ take UNDER · this move-size bucket historically 56.1% (CI 53.4–58.7, n=1325)
open +58 +56.5 Sun, 9/27 latest Total (over) — pinnacle line over time
BookLinePriceAs of
matchbook +56 -104 Thu 4:27 PM
fanduel ★ +56.5 -118 Thu 11:57 AM
betrivers +56.5 -114 Thu 5:27 PM
unibet_nl +56.5 -114 Thu 5:27 PM
onexbet +56.5 -110 Thu 12:27 PM
betonlineag +56.5 -110 Thu 8:27 AM
draftkings ★ +56.5 -110 Thu 11:57 AM
gtbets +56.5 -109 Thu 11:57 AM
lowvig +56.5 -108 Thu 8:27 AM
fanatics +56.5 -110 Thu 11:57 AM
williamhill_us +56.5 -115 Thu 11:27 AM
betmgm +56.5 -110 Thu 11:57 AM
mybookieag +56.5 -110 Thu 5:57 PM
betus +56.5 -110 Thu 11:57 AM
betanysports +56.5 -110 Thu 11:57 AM
bovada +56.5 -105 Thu 2:27 PM
pinnacle +56.5 -105 Thu 2:57 PM
everygame +56.5 -110 Thu 11:57 AM
betsson +57 -112 Thu 4:57 PM
coolbet +57 -110 Thu 11:57 AM
nordicbet +57 -114 Thu 4:57 PM
How to read this: the chart shows the sharp line drifting away from the dashed opener — that drift is the edge (3+ point movers cover ~62% historically). The book table shows who has repriced and who is still selling an old number. A bet only exists at a ★ book whose line is meaningfully behind the market.