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USC Trojans @ Penn State Nittany Lions
Sat, 10/10, 12:00 PM ET · dashed line = opening number · ★ = our books (DK/FD)
Analysis

The spread (Penn State Nittany Lions side) has barely moved — it opened at -1.5 and sits at -1.5 now. No signal either way.

The total opened at 56.5 and the market has since moved it to 58.5 — a 2.0-point move upward (toward the over).

We don't know *why* the market moved — injury news, sharp money, or weather are all invisible to us and to every public bettor. What we do know is the pattern: across five seasons, totals that moved 2–3 points covered the direction of the move 56.1% of the time when taken at the opening number (1325 games, CI 53.4–58.7). The market correcting an opener is information in itself — that's the whole strategy.

Every book has fully repriced, so there's nothing left to buy — this page exists to track how the move resolves, not to recommend a bet.

Spread (Penn State Nittany Lions) no meaningful move off the opener yet
open -1.5 -1.5 Wed, 9/30 latest Spread (Penn State Nittany Lions) — draftkings line over time
BookLinePriceAs of
draftkings ★ -1.5 -108 Wed 7:26 PM
betrivers -1.5 -112 Thu 3:27 PM
leovegas_se -1.5 -112 Thu 3:27 PM
unibet_nl -1.5 -112 Thu 3:27 PM
unibet_se -1.5 -112 Thu 3:27 PM
coolbet -1 -112 Wed 7:26 PM
Total (over) ○ PASS open 56.5 -> now 58.5 | move 2.0
→ take OVER · this move-size bucket historically 56.1% (CI 53.4–58.7, n=1325)
open +56.5 +58.5 Wed, 9/30 latest Total (over) — draftkings line over time
BookLinePriceAs of
coolbet +58 -112 Wed 7:26 PM
draftkings ★ +58.5 -110 Wed 7:26 PM
betrivers +58.5 -109 Thu 3:27 PM
unibet_nl +58.5 -109 Thu 3:27 PM
How to read this: the chart shows the sharp line drifting away from the dashed opener — that drift is the edge (3+ point movers cover ~62% historically). The book table shows who has repriced and who is still selling an old number. A bet only exists at a ★ book whose line is meaningfully behind the market.