Anthropick

AI-powered college football predictions
← back to board
Duke Blue Devils @ Illinois Fighting Illini
Sat, 9/12, 3:30 PM ET · dashed line = opening number · ★ = our books (DK/FD)
Analysis

The spread (Illinois Fighting Illini side) has barely moved — it opened at -6 and sits at -6 now. No signal either way.

The total opened at 53.5 and the market has since moved it to 51.5 — a 2.0-point move downward (toward the under). The biggest single jump we captured came Tuesday 11:30 AM (53.5 → 51.5). The number is still moving — last change Tuesday 11:59 AM.

We don't know *why* the market moved — injury news, sharp money, or weather are all invisible to us and to every public bettor. What we do know is the pattern: across five seasons, totals that moved 2–3 points covered the direction of the move 56.1% of the time when taken at the opening number (1325 games, CI 53.4–58.7). The market correcting an opener is information in itself — that's the whole strategy.

Every number left behind is at books we don't use (onexbet) — so for us this is a tracked move, not a bet.

Forecast at kickoff: wind 8 mph (gusts 10), 87°F, 10% precip. Nothing here that historically moves totals.

Spread (Illinois Fighting Illini) no meaningful move off the opener yet
open -6 -6 Sun, 9/6 latest Spread (Illinois Fighting Illini) — pinnacle line over time
BookLinePriceAs of
onexbet -6.5 -105 Mon 8:43 AM
draftkings ★ -6 -110 Tue 11:00 AM
gtbets -6 -109 Mon 1:13 PM
leovegas_se -6 -113 Tue 11:30 AM
betrivers -6 -112 Tue 11:30 AM
unibet_nl -6 -112 Tue 11:30 AM
unibet_se -6 -112 Tue 11:30 AM
betonlineag -6 -110 Mon 1:13 PM
lowvig -6 -106 Mon 1:13 PM
betmgm -6 -108 Tue 11:59 AM
williamhill_us -6 -109 Mon 1:13 PM
fanatics -6 -110 Mon 6:28 PM
betus -6 -110 Mon 1:13 PM
pinnacle -6 -102 Tue 11:59 AM
mybookieag -6 -110 Tue 8:29 AM
betanysports -6 -110 Mon 2:57 PM
everygame -6 -110 Mon 1:13 PM
fanduel ★ -5.5 -115 Mon 3:28 PM
coolbet -5.5 -112 Tue 11:30 AM
bovada -5.5 -115 Tue 6:59 AM
Total (over) ○ PASS open 53.5 -> now 51.5 | move -2.0
→ take UNDER · this move-size bucket historically 56.1% (CI 53.4–58.7, n=1325)
open +53.5 +51.5 Sun, 9/6 latest Total (over) — pinnacle line over time
BookLinePriceAs of
betonlineag +51 -112 Tue 11:30 AM
lowvig +51 -110 Tue 11:30 AM
betus +51 -110 Tue 11:30 AM
bovada +51 -110 Tue 11:30 AM
fanduel ★ +51.5 -110 Tue 11:30 AM
draftkings ★ +51.5 -115 Tue 11:30 AM
gtbets +51.5 -109 Tue 11:30 AM
betmgm +51.5 -108 Tue 11:59 AM
williamhill_us +51.5 -112 Tue 11:59 AM
fanatics +51.5 -110 Tue 11:30 AM
pinnacle +51.5 -104 Tue 11:59 AM
betanysports +51.5 -110 Tue 11:30 AM
coolbet +52 -110 Tue 11:30 AM
betrivers +52 -110 Tue 11:30 AM
unibet_nl +52 -110 Tue 11:30 AM
mybookieag +52 -110 Tue 11:30 AM
onexbet +53.5 -110 Tue 3:29 AM
How to read this: the chart shows the sharp line drifting away from the dashed opener — that drift is the edge (3+ point movers cover ~62% historically). The book table shows who has repriced and who is still selling an old number. A bet only exists at a ★ book whose line is meaningfully behind the market.