Anthropick

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Arizona Wildcats @ BYU Cougars
Sat, 9/12, 3:30 PM ET · dashed line = opening number · ★ = our books (DK/FD)
Analysis

The spread (BYU Cougars side) has barely moved — it opened at -7.5 and sits at -7.5 now. No signal either way.

The total opened at 50.5 and the market has since moved it to 48.5 — a 2.0-point move downward (toward the under). The biggest single jump we captured came Tuesday 11:30 AM (50.5 → 48.5). The number is still moving — last change Tuesday 11:30 AM.

We don't know *why* the market moved — injury news, sharp money, or weather are all invisible to us and to every public bettor. What we do know is the pattern: across five seasons, totals that moved 2–3 points covered the direction of the move 56.1% of the time when taken at the opening number (1325 games, CI 53.4–58.7). The market correcting an opener is information in itself — that's the whole strategy.

Every number left behind is at books we don't use (onexbet) — so for us this is a tracked move, not a bet.

Forecast at kickoff: wind 13 mph (gusts 26), 86°F, 5% precip. Nothing here that historically moves totals.

Spread (BYU Cougars) no meaningful move off the opener yet
open -7.5 -7.5 Sun, 9/6 latest Spread (BYU Cougars) — pinnacle line over time
BookLinePriceAs of
coolbet -8 -109 Tue 12:30 PM
unibet_se -8 -109 Tue 11:30 AM
unibet_nl -8 -109 Tue 11:30 AM
betrivers -8 -109 Mon 3:28 PM
leovegas_se -8 -110 Tue 11:30 AM
draftkings ★ -7.5 -110 Tue 11:30 AM
fanduel ★ -7.5 -110 Sun 4:49 AM
lowvig -7.5 -112 Mon 1:13 PM
betonlineag -7.5 -116 Mon 1:13 PM
gtbets -7.5 -109 Sun 6:09 PM
williamhill_us -7.5 -109 Sun 2:23 PM
betmgm -7.5 -110 Tue 11:30 AM
onexbet -7.5 -112 Tue 11:30 AM
fanatics -7.5 -110 Tue 11:30 AM
pinnacle -7.5 -106 Tue 11:30 AM
betus -7.5 -110 Mon 11:29 PM
mybookieag -7.5 -110 Mon 8:43 AM
bovada -7.5 -110 Sun 6:09 PM
betanysports -7.5 -110 Mon 5:28 PM
everygame -7.5 -110 Mon 11:58 AM
Total (over) ○ PASS open 50.5 -> now 48.5 | move -2.0
→ take UNDER · this move-size bucket historically 56.1% (CI 53.4–58.7, n=1325)
open +50.5 +48.5 Sun, 9/6 latest Total (over) — pinnacle line over time
BookLinePriceAs of
williamhill_us +48 -112 Tue 11:30 AM
fanduel ★ +48.5 -106 Tue 11:30 AM
coolbet +48.5 -110 Tue 11:30 AM
draftkings ★ +48.5 -115 Tue 11:30 AM
unibet_nl +48.5 -110 Tue 11:30 AM
betrivers +48.5 -110 Tue 11:30 AM
betmgm +48.5 -105 Tue 12:30 PM
gtbets +48.5 -109 Tue 11:30 AM
lowvig +48.5 -103 Tue 11:30 AM
betonlineag +48.5 -105 Tue 11:30 AM
fanatics +48.5 -110 Tue 11:59 AM
pinnacle +48.5 -113 Tue 11:30 AM
mybookieag +48.5 -110 Tue 11:30 AM
bovada +48.5 -110 Tue 12:30 PM
betus +49 -110 Tue 11:00 AM
betanysports +49 -110 Tue 11:00 AM
onexbet +49.5 -111 Tue 11:30 AM
How to read this: the chart shows the sharp line drifting away from the dashed opener — that drift is the edge (3+ point movers cover ~62% historically). The book table shows who has repriced and who is still selling an old number. A bet only exists at a ★ book whose line is meaningfully behind the market.