Anthropick

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SMU Mustangs @ Florida State Seminoles
Mon, 9/7, 7:30 PM ET · dashed line = opening number · ★ = our books (DK/FD)
Analysis

The spread (Florida State Seminoles side) opened at +2.5 and the market has since moved it to +3 — a 0.5-point move toward SMU Mustangs. The number is still moving — last change Monday 5:28 PM.

The total opened at 52.5 and the market has since moved it to 54.5 — a 2.0-point move upward (toward the over). The biggest single jump we captured came Monday 11:58 AM (53 → 54). The number is still moving — last change Monday 5:59 PM.

We don't know *why* the market moved — injury news, sharp money, or weather are all invisible to us and to every public bettor. What we do know is the pattern: across five seasons, totals that moved 2–3 points covered the direction of the move 56.1% of the time when taken at the opening number (1325 games, CI 53.4–58.7). The market correcting an opener is information in itself — that's the whole strategy.

Every book has fully repriced, so there's nothing left to buy — this page exists to track how the move resolves, not to recommend a bet.

Forecast at kickoff: wind 9 mph (gusts 15), 89°F, 8% precip. Nothing here that historically moves totals.

Spread (Florida State Seminoles) ○ PASS open +2.5 (home) -> now +3 | move 0.5 toward SMU Mustangs
→ take SMU Mustangs
open +2.5 +3 Mon, 8/31 latest Spread (Florida State Seminoles) — pinnacle line over time
BookLinePriceAs of
mybookieag +2.5 100 Mon 3:28 PM
gtbets +2.5 101 Mon 5:59 PM
lowvig +2.5 109 Mon 5:59 PM
betonlineag +2.5 105 Mon 5:59 PM
fanduel ★ +2.5 -104 Mon 3:58 PM
unibet_nl +2.5 -109 Mon 4:58 PM
betrivers +2.5 -109 Mon 4:58 PM
leovegas_se +2.5 -110 Mon 4:58 PM
unibet_se +2.5 -109 Mon 4:58 PM
everygame +2.5 100 Mon 5:59 PM
draftkings ★ +2.5 -102 Mon 3:28 PM
williamhill_us +2.5 -102 Mon 5:59 PM
fanatics +2.5 100 Mon 3:28 PM
onexbet +2.5 -105 Mon 2:57 PM
betsson +2.5 -105 Mon 5:28 PM
nordicbet +2.5 -105 Mon 5:28 PM
betmgm +3 -118 Mon 5:59 PM
bovada +3 -120 Mon 5:28 PM
betus +3 -115 Mon 5:59 PM
coolbet +3 -118 Mon 5:59 PM
betanysports +3 -120 Mon 5:28 PM
pinnacle +3 -114 Mon 5:28 PM
matchbook +3 -112 Mon 5:28 PM
Total (over) ○ PASS open 52.5 -> now 54.5 | move 2.0
→ take OVER · this move-size bucket historically 56.1% (CI 53.4–58.7, n=1325)
open +52.5 +54.5 Mon, 8/31 latest Total (over) — pinnacle line over time
BookLinePriceAs of
betmgm +54.5 -112 Mon 5:59 PM
bovada +54.5 -110 Mon 11:58 AM
gtbets +54.5 -109 Mon 11:58 AM
fanduel ★ +54.5 -115 Mon 4:29 PM
pinnacle +54.5 -111 Mon 5:59 PM
draftkings ★ +54.5 -118 Mon 1:13 PM
everygame +54.5 -115 Mon 5:59 PM
williamhill_us +54.5 -117 Mon 4:29 PM
fanatics +54.5 -115 Mon 3:58 PM
matchbook +54.5 -111 Mon 3:58 PM
onexbet +54.5 -110 Mon 2:07 PM
betsson +54.5 -119 Mon 5:59 PM
nordicbet +54.5 -119 Mon 5:59 PM
mybookieag +55 -110 Mon 2:07 PM
lowvig +55 -103 Mon 5:59 PM
betonlineag +55 -105 Mon 5:59 PM
betus +55 -110 Mon 11:58 AM
coolbet +55 -109 Mon 1:13 PM
unibet_nl +55 -108 Mon 4:58 PM
betrivers +55 -108 Mon 4:58 PM
betanysports +55 -110 Mon 3:28 PM
How to read this: the chart shows the sharp line drifting away from the dashed opener — that drift is the edge (3+ point movers cover ~62% historically). The book table shows who has repriced and who is still selling an old number. A bet only exists at a ★ book whose line is meaningfully behind the market.