The spread (North Dakota State Bison side) opened at -20 and the market has since moved it to -17.5 — a 2.5-point move toward Wyoming Cowboys. The biggest single jump we captured came Thursday 4:27 AM (-19 → -17.5). It last moved Thursday 4:27 AM and has held since, which reads as the market settling on this price.
The total has barely moved — it opened at 46 and sits at 46 now. No signal either way.
We don't know *why* the market moved — injury news, sharp money, or weather are all invisible to us and to every public bettor. What we do know is the pattern: across five seasons, spreads that moved 2–3 points covered the direction of the move 56.3% of the time when taken at the opening number (640 games, CI 52.4–60). The market correcting an opener is information in itself — that's the whole strategy.
Every number left behind is at books we don't use (williamhill_us) — so for us this is a tracked move, not a bet.
| Book | Line | Price | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| williamhill_us | -18.5 | -114 | Mon 3:25 AM |
| betrivers | -18 | -109 | Thu 4:57 PM |
| leovegas_se | -18 | -110 | Thu 4:57 PM |
| unibet_se | -18 | -109 | Thu 4:57 PM |
| betonlineag | -17.5 | -108 | Thu 4:27 AM |
| draftkings ★ | -17.5 | -112 | Thu 4:27 AM |
| fanduel ★ | -17.5 | -110 | Thu 11:27 AM |
| lowvig | -17.5 | -104 | Thu 4:27 AM |
| fanatics | -17.5 | -110 | Thu 4:27 AM |
| mybookieag | -17.5 | -110 | Thu 5:57 AM |
| betmgm | -17.5 | -108 | Thu 2:57 PM |
| betus | -17.5 | -110 | Thu 4:27 AM |
| betanysports | -17.5 | -110 | Thu 4:27 AM |
| bovada | -17.5 | -105 | Thu 4:27 AM |
| onexbet | -17.5 | -110 | Thu 5:57 AM |
| pinnacle | -17.5 | -104 | Thu 4:27 AM |
| coolbet | -17.5 | -109 | Thu 4:27 PM |
| everygame | -17.5 | -110 | Thu 2:57 PM |
| matchbook | -17.5 | -105 | Thu 4:27 AM |
| gtbets | -17.5 | -109 | Thu 4:27 AM |
| Book | Line | Price | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| betonlineag | +44.5 | -115 | Thu 1:27 PM |
| lowvig | +44.5 | -114 | Thu 1:27 PM |
| coolbet | +45 | -110 | Thu 1:27 PM |
| matchbook | +45 | -115 | Thu 1:27 PM |
| draftkings ★ | +45.5 | -105 | Thu 1:27 PM |
| fanduel ★ | +45.5 | -105 | Tue 9:56 PM |
| fanatics | +45.5 | -105 | Thu 1:27 PM |
| williamhill_us | +45.5 | -112 | Sun 4:25 PM |
| mybookieag | +45.5 | -110 | Tue 9:56 PM |
| betmgm | +45.5 | -105 | Thu 1:27 PM |
| betus | +45.5 | -105 | Wed 11:56 PM |
| betrivers | +45.5 | -112 | Thu 4:57 PM |
| betanysports | +45.5 | -110 | Mon 4:55 PM |
| onexbet | +45.5 | -105 | Thu 5:57 PM |
| bovada | +45.5 | -110 | Wed 11:56 PM |
| gtbets | +45.5 | -109 | Wed 7:56 AM |
| everygame | +45.5 | -110 | Thu 10:27 AM |
| pinnacle | +46 | 101 | Thu 4:27 AM |