Anthropick

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Oklahoma Sooners @ Michigan Wolverines
Sat, 9/12, 12:00 PM ET · dashed line = opening number · ★ = our books (DK/FD)
Analysis

The spread (Michigan Wolverines side) opened at -1.5 and the market has since moved it to +5.5 — a 7.0-point move toward Oklahoma Sooners. The number is still moving — last change Monday 1:13 PM.

The total opened at 46.5 and the market has since moved it to 43 — a 3.5-point move downward (toward the under). The biggest single jump we captured came Sunday 6:09 PM (44 → 43). The number is still moving — last change Monday 1:13 PM.

We don't know *why* the market moved — injury news, sharp money, or weather are all invisible to us and to every public bettor. What we do know is the pattern: across five seasons, spreads that moved 3+ points covered the direction of the move 61.9% of the time when taken at the opening number (591 games, CI 57.9–65.8). The market correcting an opener is information in itself — that's the whole strategy.

Every book has fully repriced, so there's nothing left to buy — this page exists to track how the move resolves, not to recommend a bet.

Forecast at kickoff: wind 6 mph (gusts 9), 77°F, 6% precip. Nothing here that historically moves totals.

Spread (Michigan Wolverines) ○ PASS open -1.5 (home) -> now +5.5 | move 7.0 toward Oklahoma Sooners
→ take Oklahoma Sooners · this move-size bucket historically 61.9% (CI 57.9–65.8, n=591)
open -1.5 +5.5 Sun, 9/6 latest Spread (Michigan Wolverines) — pinnacle line over time
BookLinePriceAs of
bovada +5 -110 Mon 1:13 PM
fanduel ★ +5.5 -105 Mon 1:13 PM
coolbet +5.5 -109 Mon 11:58 AM
draftkings ★ +5.5 -112 Mon 11:58 AM
onexbet +5.5 -110 Mon 8:43 AM
pinnacle +5.5 -112 Mon 1:13 PM
betmgm +5.5 -110 Mon 11:58 AM
williamhill_us +5.5 -109 Mon 8:43 AM
fanatics +5.5 -110 Mon 8:43 AM
mybookieag +5.5 -110 Mon 11:58 AM
everygame +5.5 -115 Mon 11:58 AM
unibet_nl +6 -114 Mon 11:58 AM
betrivers +6 -114 Mon 11:58 AM
leovegas_se +6 -115 Mon 11:58 AM
unibet_se +6 -114 Mon 11:58 AM
betonlineag +6 -115 Mon 8:43 AM
lowvig +6 -111 Mon 8:43 AM
betus +6 -115 Mon 11:58 AM
betanysports +6 -105 Mon 12:50 AM
betsson +6.5 -123 Mon 11:58 AM
nordicbet +6.5 -123 Mon 11:58 AM
Total (over) ○ PASS open 46.5 -> now 43 | move -3.5
→ take UNDER · this move-size bucket historically 61.4% (CI 58–64.7, n=798)
open +46.5 +43 Sun, 9/6 latest Total (over) — pinnacle line over time
BookLinePriceAs of
coolbet +43 -112 Mon 11:58 AM
betsson +43 -115 Mon 11:58 AM
nordicbet +43 -115 Mon 11:58 AM
pinnacle +43 -117 Mon 1:13 PM
fanduel ★ +43.5 -110 Sun 6:09 PM
unibet_nl +43.5 -109 Sun 6:09 PM
betrivers +43.5 -109 Sun 6:09 PM
draftkings ★ +43.5 -112 Sun 6:09 PM
williamhill_us +43.5 -110 Mon 11:58 AM
onexbet +43.5 -110 Sun 6:09 PM
betmgm +43.5 -110 Mon 11:58 AM
betonlineag +43.5 -110 Sun 2:23 PM
lowvig +43.5 -108 Sun 2:23 PM
bovada +43.5 -105 Mon 11:58 AM
fanatics +43.5 -110 Mon 8:43 AM
betus +43.5 -110 Sun 6:09 PM
mybookieag +43.5 -110 Sun 7:59 PM
betanysports +44 -110 Sun 7:59 PM
How to read this: the chart shows the sharp line drifting away from the dashed opener — that drift is the edge (3+ point movers cover ~62% historically). The book table shows who has repriced and who is still selling an old number. A bet only exists at a ★ book whose line is meaningfully behind the market.