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New Mexico State Aggies @ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
Sun, 9/13, 12:00 AM ET · dashed line = opening number · ★ = our books (DK/FD)
Analysis

The spread (Hawaii Rainbow Warriors side) opened at -10 and the market has since moved it to -7 — a 3.0-point move toward New Mexico State Aggies. The biggest single jump we captured came Tuesday 10:09 PM (-9 → -7.5). The number is still moving — last change Tuesday 10:40 PM.

The total has barely moved — it opened at 50.5 and sits at 50.5 now. No signal either way.

We don't know *why* the market moved — injury news, sharp money, or weather are all invisible to us and to every public bettor. What we do know is the pattern: across five seasons, spreads that moved 3+ points covered the direction of the move 61.9% of the time when taken at the opening number (591 games, CI 57.9–65.8). The market correcting an opener is information in itself — that's the whole strategy.

Every number left behind is at books we don't use (onexbet) — so for us this is a tracked move, not a bet.

Our logged picks on this game
spread away +7 @ pinnacle — pending
Spread (Hawaii Rainbow Warriors) ○ PASS open -10 (home) -> now -7 | move 3.0 toward New Mexico State Aggies
→ take New Mexico State Aggies · this move-size bucket historically 61.9% (CI 57.9–65.8, n=591)
open -10 -7 Sun, 9/6 latest Spread (Hawaii Rainbow Warriors) — pinnacle line over time
BookLinePriceAs of
onexbet -10.5 -109 Sun 6:09 PM
mybookieag -7.5 -110 Tue 8:29 PM
fanduel ★ -7.5 -102 Tue 8:29 PM
draftkings ★ -7 -112 Tue 9:01 PM
lowvig -7 -111 Tue 9:01 PM
betonlineag -7 -115 Tue 9:01 PM
williamhill_us -7 -113 Tue 9:01 PM
betmgm -7 -102 Tue 9:38 PM
gtbets -7 -114 Tue 10:40 PM
coolbet -7 -115 Tue 9:05 PM
betus -7 -110 Tue 9:01 PM
pinnacle -7 -114 Tue 10:40 PM
bovada -7 -115 Tue 10:40 PM
leovegas_se -7 -114 Tue 6:59 PM
unibet_se -7 -113 Tue 6:59 PM
betrivers -7 -113 Tue 6:59 PM
unibet_nl -7 -113 Tue 6:59 PM
betanysports -7 -110 Tue 8:29 PM
fanatics -7 -115 Tue 8:29 PM
everygame -7 -110 Tue 9:01 PM
Total (over) no meaningful move off the opener yet
open +50.5 +50.5 Sun, 9/6 latest Total (over) — pinnacle line over time
BookLinePriceAs of
draftkings ★ +49.5 -110 Tue 6:59 PM
betmgm +49.5 -110 Tue 9:38 PM
lowvig +49.5 -108 Tue 9:36 PM
betonlineag +49.5 -110 Tue 9:36 PM
williamhill_us +49.5 -114 Tue 9:01 PM
gtbets +49.5 -109 Tue 11:09 PM
coolbet +49.5 -110 Tue 9:05 PM
betanysports +49.5 -110 Tue 9:36 PM
betus +50 -110 Tue 9:36 PM
mybookieag +50 -110 Tue 9:01 PM
bovada +50 -110 Tue 9:36 PM
fanatics +50 -110 Tue 7:30 PM
pinnacle +50.5 -101 Tue 10:09 PM
onexbet +50.5 -127 Sun 6:09 PM
betrivers +50.5 -109 Tue 6:59 PM
unibet_nl +50.5 -109 Tue 6:59 PM
fanduel ★ +50.5 -110 Mon 12:50 AM
How to read this: the chart shows the sharp line drifting away from the dashed opener — that drift is the edge (3+ point movers cover ~62% historically). The book table shows who has repriced and who is still selling an old number. A bet only exists at a ★ book whose line is meaningfully behind the market.