The spread (San Diego State Aztecs side) opened at +4 and the market has since moved it to +7.5 — a 3.5-point move toward Texas State Bobcats. The biggest single jump we captured came Wednesday 3:26 PM (+3.5 → +5). It last moved Thursday 1:57 PM and has held since, which reads as the market settling on this price.
The total opened at 58.5 and the market has since moved it to 57.5 — a 1.0-point move downward (toward the under). The biggest single jump we captured came Thursday 1:57 PM (59 → 57.5). It last moved Thursday 1:57 PM and has held since, which reads as the market settling on this price.
We don't know *why* the market moved — injury news, sharp money, or weather are all invisible to us and to every public bettor. What we do know is the pattern: across five seasons, spreads that moved 3+ points covered the direction of the move 61.9% of the time when taken at the opening number (591 games, CI 57.9–65.8). The market correcting an opener is information in itself — that's the whole strategy.
Every number left behind is at books we don't use (onexbet) — so for us this is a tracked move, not a bet.
Forecast at kickoff: wind 5 mph (gusts 2), 94°F, 0% precip. Nothing here that historically moves totals.
| Book | Line | Price | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| onexbet | +6.5 | -112 | Thu 2:57 AM |
| fanatics | +7.5 | -110 | Thu 1:27 PM |
| bovada | +7.5 | -110 | Thu 1:27 PM |
| pinnacle | +7.5 | -107 | Thu 1:57 PM |
| betonlineag | +8 | -110 | Thu 5:27 PM |
| betrivers | +8 | -115 | Thu 3:27 PM |
| leovegas_se | +8 | -117 | Thu 3:27 PM |
| lowvig | +8 | -106 | Thu 5:27 PM |
| unibet_nl | +8 | -115 | Thu 3:27 PM |
| unibet_se | +8 | -115 | Thu 3:27 PM |
| gtbets | +8 | -109 | Thu 4:27 PM |
| mybookieag | +8 | -110 | Thu 4:27 PM |
| betmgm | +8 | -108 | Thu 5:27 PM |
| betus | +8 | -110 | Thu 4:57 PM |
| betanysports | +8 | -110 | Thu 5:27 PM |
| coolbet | +8 | -110 | Thu 4:57 PM |
| everygame | +8 | -110 | Thu 3:27 PM |
| fanduel ★ | +8.5 | -108 | Thu 4:57 PM |
| draftkings ★ | +8.5 | -112 | Thu 4:27 PM |
| williamhill_us | +8.5 | -113 | Thu 4:27 PM |
| Book | Line | Price | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| fanduel ★ | +57.5 | -110 | Thu 2:57 PM |
| fanatics | +57.5 | -110 | Thu 1:27 PM |
| draftkings ★ | +57.5 | -112 | Thu 4:27 PM |
| gtbets | +57.5 | -109 | Thu 9:57 AM |
| williamhill_us | +57.5 | -117 | Thu 9:57 AM |
| mybookieag | +57.5 | -110 | Thu 2:57 PM |
| betmgm | +57.5 | -110 | Thu 4:27 PM |
| betus | +57.5 | -110 | Thu 1:57 PM |
| bovada | +57.5 | -110 | Thu 1:27 PM |
| pinnacle | +57.5 | -108 | Thu 1:57 PM |
| coolbet | +57.5 | -110 | Thu 4:27 PM |
| everygame | +57.5 | -110 | Thu 11:57 AM |
| betonlineag | +58 | -105 | Thu 9:57 AM |
| lowvig | +58 | -103 | Thu 9:57 AM |
| betanysports | +58 | -110 | Thu 5:27 PM |
| betrivers | +58.5 | -106 | Thu 11:57 AM |
| onexbet | +58.5 | -114 | Thu 2:57 AM |
| unibet_nl | +58.5 | -106 | Thu 11:57 AM |