Record
11–8
our picks, all graded
Live bets now
2
green cards below
Avg CLV
+0.85
beating the close = real edge
Data age
29m
updates every 30–60 min
This week — actionable at DraftKings / FanDuel
lines as of 7:27 PM ET — books reprice constantly, always verify in the app before betting
open +1 (home) -> now -2.5 | move -3.5 toward Washington State Cougars
→ take Washington State Cougars
· historically 61.9% (CI 57.9–65.8, n=591)
✓ bettable: draftkings -1.5 (-115) ✓ bettable: fanduel -1.5 (-114)9 other books stale (not DK/FD)
open 53.5 -> now 56.5 | move 3.0
→ take OVER
· historically 61.4% (CI 58–64.7, n=798)
✓ bettable: draftkings 55.5 (-112) ✓ bettable: fanduel 55.5 (-114)10 other books stale (not DK/FD)
⏱ Expired — was bettable, the gap has closed
Samford Bulldogs @ UAB Blazers
— total over
+51.5 was live at fanduel (logged Thu 4:57 PM).
The gap closed (the book caught up, or the market moved back). Graded in
Record after the game.
Looking ahead — next week (preview only)
Lines already moving for next week's games. NOT bettable picks yet — teams still have this week's game to play, so anything can change. These become eligible picks Sunday morning, after the current slate finishes.
open 48.5 -> now 41.5 | move -7.0
→ take UNDER
· historically 61.4% (CI 58–64.7, n=798)
move fully priced — no DK/FD number left
open 50.5 -> now 54.5 | move 4.0
→ take OVER
· historically 61.4% (CI 58–64.7, n=798)
move fully priced — no DK/FD number left
open +6 (home) -> now +9.5 | move 3.5 toward Texas Longhorns
→ take Texas Longhorns
· historically 61.9% (CI 57.9–65.8, n=591)
move fully priced — no DK/FD number left
open 56.5 -> now 58.5 | move 2.0
→ take OVER
· historically 56.1% (CI 53.4–58.7, n=1325)
move fully priced — no DK/FD number left
Tracking — moves we saw, value already gone
open -2 (home) -> now +3 | move 5.0 toward North Texas Mean Green
→ take North Texas Mean Green
· historically 61.9% (CI 57.9–65.8, n=591)
move fully priced — no DK/FD number left
open 47 -> now 43 | move -4.0
→ take UNDER
· historically 61.4% (CI 58–64.7, n=798)
move fully priced — no DK/FD number left
open 51.5 -> now 48 | move -3.5
→ take UNDER
· historically 61.4% (CI 58–64.7, n=798)
2 other books stale (not DK/FD)
open +1 (home) -> now -2.5 | move -3.5 toward Georgia State Panthers
→ take Georgia State Panthers
· historically 61.9% (CI 57.9–65.8, n=591)
3 other books stale (not DK/FD)
open +4 (home) -> now +7.5 | move 3.5 toward Texas State Bobcats
→ take Texas State Bobcats
· historically 61.9% (CI 57.9–65.8, n=591)
1 other book stale (not DK/FD)
open 59.5 -> now 62.5 | move 3.0
→ take OVER
· historically 61.4% (CI 58–64.7, n=798)
4 other books stale (not DK/FD)
open -20 (home) -> now -17.5 | move 2.5 toward Wyoming Cowboys
→ take Wyoming Cowboys
· historically 56.3% (CI 52.4–60, n=640)
1 other book stale (not DK/FD)
open -15 (home) -> now -13 | move 2.0 toward Bowling Green Falcons
→ take Bowling Green Falcons
· historically 56.3% (CI 52.4–60, n=640)
move fully priced — no DK/FD number left
open 54 -> now 52 | move -2.0
→ take UNDER
· historically 56.1% (CI 53.4–58.7, n=1325)
2 other books stale (not DK/FD)
open +6 (home) -> now +4 | move -2.0 toward NC State Wolfpack
→ take NC State Wolfpack
· historically 56.3% (CI 52.4–60, n=640)
move fully priced — no DK/FD number left
open 60.5 -> now 58.5 | move -2.0
→ take UNDER
· historically 56.1% (CI 53.4–58.7, n=1325)
move fully priced — no DK/FD number left
open +5.5 (home) -> now +3.5 | move -2.0 toward Kent State Golden Flashes
→ take Kent State Golden Flashes
· historically 56.3% (CI 52.4–60, n=640)
move fully priced — no DK/FD number left
open 52.5 -> now 54.5 | move 2.0
→ take OVER
· historically 56.1% (CI 53.4–58.7, n=1325)
move fully priced — no DK/FD number left
open 55.5 -> now 57.5 | move 2.0
→ take OVER
· historically 56.1% (CI 53.4–58.7, n=1325)
move fully priced — no DK/FD number left